HR Demand

Forecasting the Future with MEC

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The marketplace for the current retail industry is competitive and challenging. It also provides us with the opportunity to analyze the realities that businesses face in order to stay alive. MEC, formerly known as Mountain Equipment Co-op, is a case in point.

MEC is a Canadian outdoor equipment and clothing sales retailer with a targeted consumer base. Customers are members who can purchase a lifetime membership card to buy high-end adventuring products. If we were to apply one of the corporate strategies from our HR planning studies, MEC would most likely fit into the ‘differentiation strategy’ category. Established in 1971, MEC continued to persevere successfully until 2019, when it faced multimillion dollar losses as reported by the CBC.

As noted in the CBC article, MEC faced numerous environmental challenges. Again, if we were to apply our HR planning studies to this case, we would see that an environmental scan of the strategic business challenges facing MEC include both internal (organizational and staffing structures) and external (online and big-box store competition) impacts.

In January 2020, MEC announced the implementation of significant staffing and structural changes in response to the aforementioned financial and retail losses. As noted in this article, which summarizes their proactive strategic business initiatives, MEC appears to be implementing a ‘turnaround strategy’ in order to increase its organizational viability.

Part of this new business plan includes the need to convert a number of existing part-time or casual roles to full-time, permanent employment positions. This step provides an example of the need for HR forecasting, which must take into account the current HR supply measured against the future HR demand for human capital. With the implementation of this kind of staffing strategy, both the number of employees, and the corporate knowledge that these employees bring to their roles, should be retained, and will increase profitability and much-needed viability.

In order to survive, any business strategy that is focused on the need for change comes with the expectation of success in implementation, along with an escalated level of risk. It remains yet to be seen how these changes will all play out in this real-time application of human resources and business strategic planning for MEC.

Discussion Questions:

  1. What other types of business strategies could MEC use in order to remain viable in the current marketplace?
  2. What type of staffing strategies is MEC using to bolster employee support and confidence?
  3. What are ongoing environmental risks that MEC must consider in order to remain viable?
  4. If you were to apply a SWOT analysis to MEC’s new strategic directions, what would be the results?

Millennial Movement

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If there is one consistent thing when looking at workforce patterns, it is that the millennial generation is on the move.  However, how that movement is perceived seems to be a bit of a glass-half-full/glass-half-empty view.

GIF with caption, " I don't want to freak you out, but I may be the voice of my generation".
Source: alastairadversaria.wordpress.com. The above content constitutes a link to the source website.

A recent article in the Huffington Post provides us with survey-based information related to the high patterns of millennial workers wanting to quit their jobs.

Click Here to Read the Article.

The Canadian HR Reporter also posted an article recently that looks at the rationale behind the high rates of workforce movement for the millennial crowd.

Click Here to Read the Article.

As HR practitioners, we have a choice as to how we capture the challenges and opportunities offered by these millennial created patterns. The known benefits of a staid and stable post-millennial workforce may be just that, offering a steady flow that is predictable, unchanging, and perhaps, a bit dull.  It should be no surprise that the millennial workforce is vibrant and full of movement. This is a generation that is young, well-educated, and connected to the virtual world in a way that has never been seen before.  It certainly seems that the decision to move to the next best thing, for a person of the millennial generation, comes at a faster rate when existing things like career limitations or organizational values based fit are no longer comfortable.

Should we hold this generation back or let them go, knowing that this millennial pattern too, shall change?

Discussion Questions:

  1. As an HR professional, how does the statistical information about millennial workforce patterns assist in HR forecasting?
  2. If the patterns for millennial workforce movement are accurate, then a) What types of HR activities would be least effective for retention purposes? and b) What types of HR programs would be most important and effective to have in place?
  3. How does the survey information, including the identification of age/generational categories, reflect your own career experience or expectations?

Boom or Bust?

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It may seem that the concepts of HR Supply and HR Demand come from an almost clinical approach.  This is most evident when we look at these concepts through a human capital lens and try to apply formulas to predict the ebb and flow of human resources supply and demand.

Words Boom and Bust on opposite ends of a balance
Source: Mark Carrel/Shutterstock

Predicting the patterns of potential employee movements are not isolated exercises – They are all connected and part of bigger picture circumstances.

For example, the overall economic situation in Alberta provides us with an excellent opportunity to consider how individual employees will be impacted by the changing economy.

Click Here to Read the Article

As we read in this article, Alberta was once the province offering an abundance of HR demand. There were lots of jobs and lots of opportunity.  Now, Alberta is the province facing the very real impact of too much HR supply – Increasingly fewer jobs and much less opportunity.  HR’s role will be critical in determining how this oversupply will be managed and, most importantly, how the individual employee will be impacted as a result.

We cannot forget that any HR supply and demand analysis is about people.  Analysis and formulaic approaches help us with planning predictions; however, we must remember that the implementation of these plans will have an impact on our fellow humans as we all move into a challenging and unpredictable future.

Discussion Questions:

  1. What types of compensation strategies would lessen the need for layoffs in Alberta?
  2. If you had to accept a wage reduction in order to have your work colleagues keep their jobs, what would you do?
  3. Identify three critical steps that the HR professional should be taking when considering staffing reductions due to economic indicators.
  4. What would be the biggest challenge for you when preparing an HR plan that includes staffing reductions?

The Delphi Technique

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All HR professionals are expected to understand the basic tools necessary to determine HR Demand.  All the HR textbooks cover the topic, and all HR provincial regulatory examinations will test you on the subject.  Learning the concepts and applying the concepts, are two vastly different tasks. Many HR Professionals use the Delphi Technique, outlined in this Belcourt’s, Strategic Human Resources Planning, to determine HR Demand.

The Delphi Technique is described as:

“A process in which the forecasts and judgments of a selected group of experts are solicited and summarized in an attempt to determine the future HR demand.”

Now let’s take the theory behind the Delphi Technique and make it practical.  The following step-by-step guide for application, was written by Project Manager, Duncan Haughety:

Step 1: Choose a Facilitator

Step 2: Identify Your Experts

Step 3: Define the Problem

Step 4: Round One Questions

Step 5: Round Two Questions

Step 6: Round Three Questions

Step 7: Act on Your Findings

Click here to read more about Haughety’s Step-by-Step Guide.

The next time you are asked to predict HR demand, pull out this step-by-step guide to help you along.

Discussion Questions:

  1. You are the HR director for a solar panel manufacture, currently employing 500 engineers, project managers, sales people, general assembly workers and installers.  Your current annual production is 100,000 units.  Your sales forecasts predict that your sales will double next year, and 500% in five years. Develop an action plan by using the Delphi technique and predict the future HR demand for employees in your industry.